John, good to see you. Let's talk about what everybody is talking about these days: SpaceX. Is it an opportunity or an overpriced rocket? There's a lot of buzz around SpaceX and other AI companies right now, but history tells us hype doesn't always equal strong investment outcomes. So how should we weigh the opportunity versus the hype right now?

Yeah, well you know, space, the final frontier, right? You can hear the Star Trek music playing. And it's a very exciting time, I think, just in general for our world and our global economy with space and AI. And, you know, what SpaceX has really been strong at is space infrastructure, global broadband, global internet, government contracts, reusable rockets. So there's a lot of great stuff that is going on not only with SpaceX but the whole tech sector. But you can't get caught up in that hype, because if you get caught up in that hype and you start skipping the steps, mainly research and due diligence, you could get hurt.

Right, I'm glad you brought that up because historically, nearly 60% of IPOs since 1980 have returned zero or negative returns over three years. That's according to University of Florida professor Jay Ritter. So how should that shape the way investors approach high profile IPOs?

Yeah, so you have to look at history and you can't get caught up in the name brand of SpaceX. History has shown us that a lot of IPOs, they get that initial bounce up and then it comes down. And if you look at this chart here, here we are in early July and we're looking at this chart, you saw that post-IPO rush and the price shot up to $225 a share intraday high, I believe it was. And then all of a sudden, that's great unless you bought it at $220 or $225 a share and it dropped down to $147. That's a 34% drawdown. Right. So what I think the problem is is with, you have a lot of hype going in, SpaceX is a company, they're going to have their marketers, they're going to hype themselves because they want investors to fund their company. But ultimately, like any stock, it's going to pull back and I really caution investors right after the IPO to really have patience. And really gauge the fundamentals of the company because you're going to have more and more insiders, employees or institutions starting to take profits, and when that happens, it's supply and demand. When you have more being sold than bought, that's going to drive down the price and buying an investment is the most important aspect, because if you get in at the wrong time, you're going to just be buying a rollercoaster on its way down.

Mhmm. So you talk about doing your homework, so just to throw some numbers at everybody, SpaceX was targeting a $1.75 trillion valuation, but Morningstar puts fair value closer to $780 billion. How important is valuation discipline when choosing how to invest?

Oh, it's critical. It's a key piece of fundamental analysis, and that's not just a couple million dollars off, that was a significant valuation number off. So again, this gets into very complex stuff and I hear it from people all the time: if you want to buy SpaceX and you're going to be a buy and hold and you're just going to buy a couple thousand dollars' worth of shares where it's not going to hurt you, that's fine. But if you're really looking—there is no quick get rich quick schemes in this world. If you are really looking to invest a substantial amount of money in this, you better be doing your homework. And it's not just reading some magazine article or financial blog. It's really digging into the fundamentals of the company and the technicals of what that stock is doing.

Right, which I know you love doing. It might not be everybody's cup of tea, but it is yours. So for investors then who don't want to miss out but they are wary of the risks, what's a more disciplined approach to evaluating whether and when to invest in a company like SpaceX?

Well, let's start with whether. With any stock, we've seen some great stocks over the years that were great until they weren't. So you have to look at how much am I willing to lose and I wouldn't put SpaceX in the crypto space, so I won't say are you willing to lose everything, but are you willing to lose half your investment or more? And can your portfolio withstand that? So you really need to look at what you can stomach and if your portfolio can withstand it. Like I said, if you're going to just say, hey listen, I can afford to put $10,000 in and just let it ride, it's not going to impact me if I lost the $10,000, so be it, but I really firmly believe in this and that's your what we call your Vegas gambling money, then go ahead and do it. Right. If you're going to be looking at this as a true investor, then number one: don't follow the crowd, because statistically speaking, according to data, true investors that are trying to time the market are wrong 95% of the time. So what you want to do is start fundamentally. Look at the revenue and the growth projections of the company. You want to look at the profitability of the company. Right. We already talked valuation. And you just give yourself a go, no-go checklist. And we already talked about the risk portfolio, and then the last, obviously, is my favorite: the technicals. And there's a really great quote that I recently heard from a financial mastermind where he said, listen, you could have the greatest investment, right? There could be a use for SpaceX and we all know it's going to have a substantial impact on our world. But if it's not trading well, then you don't buy it. It doesn't matter if you know it's going to eventually do it if you're really trying to get in at the best price and it's not trading well and the technicals show that, then you don't buy it. Sometimes patience is one of the best investment moves you can make. And I'm sure plenty of people who are watching this may have made a right stock pick, whether that's Amazon, Nvidia, they didn't get it one month in, maybe they got it six months or a year in. You look at companies like Micron where, if you even got it this year, you've seen 60% growth at times. So it's really about going through that checklist to satisfy your due diligence with this. Again, I constantly look at it to say hey, maybe I'll put 1 or 2% in my clients' portfolios, but not right now, I'm not. That's not to say that it's not on my radar, but again I'm just looking for that right price, Erin.

Absolutely, yep, and doing your homework, per usual. Well John, again the answer's going to be different for everybody. If somebody wants to talk through investing in SpaceX or many of these other AI companies and upcoming IPOs, what's the best way to reach you with questions?

Yeah, well you can visit our website www.gosecurus.com where you can learn more about our firm and all the education we've put on our website. And while you're on the website you can visit the contact us tab and you can schedule either a 20-minute phone call where we'll answer any general questions you may have about SpaceX—we will not give you financial or investment advice, I'll just throw that out there—and if you want to elicit our services, you can also schedule a complimentary vision and clarity consultation.

Great. Thank you very much for your time. Thank you.