Ep 63: How Interest Rates Will Impact The Real Estate Market With Carlos Gutierrez
Carlos Gutierrez joins us on the podcast for this week’s episode. Carlos is a real estate agent at Carlos Sells San Diego. He brings his high level of expertise and knowledge to all of the buyers and investors he works with. Since interest rates are on the rise, we thought this would be a perfect time to bring Carlos to the show and discuss how this will affect the real estate market. He will also talk about common downsize mistakes and relocation considerations.
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FULL EPISODE TRANSCRIPT:
You could throw a rock and get a real estate agent. But are they ones that are doing business and know how to negotiate other than just being able to open a lockbox, open a door and write an offer, big difference.
This is The Retire Happy Podcast with John Iammarino fiduciary financial advisor at Securus. Financial in the San Diego area. And Thomas O’Connell, President of International Financial Advisory Group Inc in Rockaway New Jersey. Together, you won’t be keeping retirement happy from coast to coast welcome back to another episode of The Retire Happy Podcast. I’m your host on the West Coast John Iammarino and I am joined by my esteemed co host on the East Coast Tommy O’Connell. How you doing? I’m great. How are you? Excellent, excellent, beautiful day here in sunny San Diego and same here out on the East Coast. We finally got some sun and warm weather stopped raining snowing. Baseball starts in three days. So we know springs here for sure. Yes, we cannot wait. So folks, we have another great show lined up for you today. We’re going to be talking with local real estate adviser extraordinaire Carlos Gutierrez of Carlos sell San Diego which is part of the EXP Realty family. And Carlos is an outstanding real estate adviser. As a matter of fact, he’s one of the top three individual agent productions here in San Diego and he is all over the internet. This guy has a tremendous tremendous social following. He’s been on the news. He’s been the newspapers he does marketing videos, Instagram, Facebook all over the place really always teaching the public about real estate and investing in real estate. And before this extraordinary career, he was the original Monty Montezuma over at San Diego State. So without further ado, I would like to introduce to you a friend of mine for over 30 years. Carlos Gutierrez
and today’s guest a real estate agent. Carlos sells San Diego. It’s Carlos Gutierrez.
Thank you so much, John. Appreciate the time and energy and that beautiful intro. Thank you.
You are one of the hardest working people I know so well deserved, well deserved and like to introduce you to my esteemed co host Tom O’Connell. Nice to meet you Tom on the East Coast. I’ve heard lots about you. Thank you and same here and well, hopefully, you guys are gonna get a little bit warmer weather out there. It’s getting there. It’s not quite San Diego weather but we’re getting there now. So. So on today’s show, we want to talk about what is going on with interest rates the Fed has said they are going to raise interest rates six times and really the effect that that’s going to have on you as a potential buyer or seller of real estate. And you know, when we look at the interest rates, the interest rates for 30 year fixed mortgages actually started to move higher in late last year, I think in November they around 2.89. Now they’re in the mid fours last week round 4.4 plus. And yeah, I mean, that’s a pretty, pretty steep rate and just a couple rate increase in just a couple of months. But historically I mean, we’d much rather have these rates and the rates we had in the late 90s and whatnot. So what I would like to start off, Carlos is saying, What does this mean? You know, what’s your views on the market and what’s going on with interest rates? Well, the market has been very strong you know, this last year to date, we’re up, you know, double digit increases significantly in some areas. 16.1% a year to date, that’s a year from like this last month of march to the March before so that’s pretty huge increase some areas like La Jolla adds up 42.1% in median sales price. So in San Diego we don’t have a lot of track homes, some are more you know custom homes and very unique homes. So I can’t say the price you know here in this area is going to be the same price in another area with with different style homes in different areas. busy streets, etc. So pricing is up significantly interest rates, how that’s going to affect the market is basically it’s going to slow it down a little bit in regards to the ability to go up in value and everything I list I’m very conservative in regards to not overpricing the property because there are more buyers that you have competing for that one home. The opportunity it goes into taking out the other buyers I hate to say it that way but the other buyers that aren’t as strong maybe that are getting an FHA loan or a VA unfortunately that’s going into a condo complex that you know may not be certified the VA those other buyers that have more cash, maybe a better credit score, have ability to go up above those sales price. So that’s what’s going to have the haves and have nots is what’s going on in this market. Then you have cash buyers and those cash buyers are going to take everybody out because they can just do no contingencies they don’t need to have a loan contingency appraisal contingency and you know the the you can’t really compete against cash. I’m gonna assume them from what you’re telling me or telling us that California San Diego area is probably a lot similar to where I am where I have some neighbors over the last few months who have been put their houses on the market. They get about 50 people coming through in a weekend and they’re getting 10,20 30% over what their asking price is. Is that is that really because now people are in the process of really buying these properties because they know the interest rates are going up or is there a real reason for these value increases in the properties you pretty much stated are right there in regards to interest rates are going up there’s a couple other factors as well, historically, even though we’re in the upper threes and fours and I’m a real estate agent, so I can’t really talk rates good talk to my wife who is a lender. However, they’re still historically low. If you really look at it. You know, when I bought my first house I got I want to say they were in the eight to nine so That’s double what we’re paying right now. It’s crazy. So with that stated also, the biggest factor is that we’re seeing America’s short about 5 million homes that builders can’t make up the difference so that we’re still in the shortage of homes and a couple of key points is some 12.3 million American households were formed from January 2012 to about 2020 of 2021. That is, but just 7 million single family homes were built during that time. So that’s about a 5 million home disparity. So single family home construction is running at probably the lowest rate it’s been since 1995. That’s when all the regulations started coming in. In like San Diego though there’s less big plots of land to build those planned developments. However, you know, prices and everything’s gone up, gone down but now up inflation’s up so everything’s through the roof, but the biggest part is the red tape to be able to build, especially in San Diego specifically. There’s so much cost that goes into it in years of planning just to be able to build certain developments throughout San Diego. So the biggest thing is that that is where the focus needs to be is really streamlining being able to build but you’ve gotten a lot of you know, nimbys out there that not in my backyard and the pricing just gets so crazy that you know it’s gonna be supply and demand. Well, red tape, Tommy, another one of our favorite the bureaucrats getting in the way and just making everything just more messed up.
Well, we can go on to that when you know we’re they’re trying to pass some stuff now like we’re still in a state of emergency in San Diego. So they’re trying they how many they’re gone. 700 In some days, it was supposed to be two weeks to slow the curve something like that to flatten the curve. Now we’re about 720 Some days into this. And you’d think about what happened with the rent moratorium which basically they took away. You know, you didn’t have to pay your rent. You know, we’re gonna give you free money. What happens when you’re like, people don’t want to work. They feel that they don’t have to work so they’re not going to go out and really take care of the things they need to and they’re looking at the landlords to pay and make up for that, you know, which is crazy but they provide great housing. However, now people may not have the income to be able to now afford to get a loan and especially, you know, the cost of housing now and especially in San Diego. I mean, I think the average home in America is probably still about 275 to $325,000. I mean the average home here is about $880,000 in San Diego, so it’s a big, big disparity. So on that side of the aisle, maybe the residential is a little bit more your expertise. But you know, when you say there’s a moratorium permit, and that homeowners for the renters are looking to the landlords now, the landlord still had to pay their property taxes. The landlord’s still had to pay the mortgages on those buildings. Do you think we’re going to see some type of blowback, commercial side or on the multi home or multifamily building assets? You know, because of that, Dad, you’re in San Diego they’re trying to build more you know it especially in this marina district here they’re going up, you know, huge in regards to meaning up above the normal height limit. It’s to be able to do more infill where you don’t need as much parking, etc. In San Diego long as as long as you have transportation. You have you know the MTS, you have the buses, you have the trolleys and those types of things are trying to do more infill in San Diego compared to the single family building. We just we’ve run out of land basically we’re out to the mountains, we’ve got the ocean you got the border here to the south, into the North. It’s pretty much Camp Pendleton so for seeing Diego specifically. Yes, we run out of that space per se, and they’re going to have to go up in kind of the villages theme in regards to building up the condos, in which there’s so much red tape those still to build those out. So it just takes years and years and years to go through all that. Yeah.
Now, Carlos. No, I go right back to individual housing. So we this is a show that’s geared towards a lot of pre retirees and retirees. So in this market right now, and even potentially, you know, with some interest rate hikes in the future, is it better to be a seller, a buyer or both kind of take us from the viewpoint of both and what we should what they should expect. That’s a great question. However, everybody’s different. So everybody has different goals, motivations in different places. Are they retiring? Are they pre retiring? Are they still in their growth method of trying to still acquire more properties and you know, you take a look at it with the pricing that’s gone so high that needs to be made up with the rent. We’re dealing with a lot of people with a lot of money during 1031 tax exchange. And if you’re dealing with the type of clientele that are listening, the show they know what a 1031 is. However, there’s some people that are taking advantage of that deferred sales trust the DTSs as well where they don’t want to go back into real estate. So they want to be able to have their income and not have to hit get that big capital gain hit. That’s what I’m dealing with. A lot of my sellers have seen great. Now I could sell my house that I’ve owned for 5-10 years. It’s doubled in value. However, what’s the government going to do now? Kind of extortion really to a point they’re gonna get a huge capital gain hidden? We’re not only talking 50, 60,000 we’re talking hundreds of 1000s of dollars on the sale that the governments can have their handout and say, give me your money. There’s a lot of people that work very hard for their money and they don’t want to give it away so they’re going to hold it. They may refinance, take some money out if they need, but they’re just going to continue to hold and especially with the low property taxes that they if they’ve owned that property for 10 plus years, they’re going to be holding on to that even more because if they have to go buy something else, the property tax in San Diego like 1.1 and a quarter, you know on a $2 million dollar property, you know, you’re paying 20 to $22,000 a year in property taxes. It’s almost a mortgage payment for some right right which which is a conversation I’ve had with quite a few clients here who would love to downsize but the actual cost of the downsizing is going to be more than keeping their bigger home and even paying for the upkeep. Very true. So you know, it’s really what’s the motivation? And what is the benefit for the client and everybody is completely different. So, as an advisor like myself, I’m trying to help people not only gain wealth, in real estate, however, retain it and continue with contained legacy wealth for their families in their generations down the road. That’s awesome. That’s John and I talk about legacy planning a lot on our program.
Good. You know, a couple things that you that you hit on, are very similar here in New Jersey. I think the main reason why people are moving out in the communist state of New Jersey is because of the high taxes I think the average property tax in New Jersey is somewhere around 12 to $15,000 a year so so like you were saying Carlos for a lot of people, that’s what mortgages almost.
But here we also have an exit tax penalty. So if you’re if you’re selling your house and moving out of state, you have a choice. You can either pay 8.97% of the tax on the profit of the sale of your house, or 2% of the total selling price, and you have to pay that up front to the communist who run the state. Yeah, and my question is when you have to pay that kind of extortion, tax be I want to know where is that money going to went to the politicians to the bureaucrats just trying to keep their thumb on on the people so it’s not to a point I don’t blame them you know, we have a lot of people leaving the commie California as well. Unfortunately, um, however, the Patriots that are here are hardworking, that believe in the city that state are staying and fighting because it’s something worth fighting for. So I would agree with that it’s worth fighting for. So I don’t want anybody to take my commentary the wrong way. I totally agree with you. 100%. Yeah. And but now, you know, the reality of it is, again for retirees, whether, you know, I’m seeing a couple of issues with with clients leaving out I’m doing Microsoft Teams conferences with clients in in Tennessee, Arizona, Texas, Washington, and they’re leaving for a couple reasons. Number one, just the costs. And you know, from in we’re talking from a financial standpoint that you know, just the cost of living in San Diego Gas prices, the electric prices everything. But then number two, the family structure what a lot of people don’t realize is that you know, the cat Alexa, it has it has a tearing effect that even my family is going through right? My my wife’s her whole family is now moving out to Arizona where they can live more affordably and her parents are looking to retire at a state so they can have a higher higher comfort of living. And so if you can afford to live out here but your grandkids are moving away and you want to be closer to them that’s really forcing a lot of people to move out also very true. There’s several reasons why people you know, are selling and that’s one of them. So is because they want to move closer to their kids and the grandkids and I deal a little bit in the higher end so with that, you know, they own their real estate for a while and they want to live closer to their kids and they may want to sell the big house and then downsize to maybe a condo if they want to still be here in San Diego and then buy whatever they’re going to buy out there. So I have a couple of people doing that. Now you know that own real estate here in San Diego even though they do live in the villages in Florida. They’re looking to buy a place out in Ocean City, Maryland. You know, to live closer to their, you know, to their grandkids and their nephews that have kids etc, etc. It’s very important, you know, so Carlos, I think probably this question will will work for either coast. What are some of the pitfalls that or common mistakes that you find people are making when they do that when they’re trying to downsize or move out of state or move to a location that isn’t within their general area? What are some of the things that people either aren’t thinking about or they’re just not aware of? Well, it depends. You know, I always tell people before you do anything, you should talk to your financial advisor or your CPA, if you have one and some of the clients I’m dealing with it, you know, have a lot of gain. They should be talking to those people and getting advice from them because I’d love to sell your property however, if it’s not going to benefit you financially. Number one and then you know, realistically number two is that maybe you should keep it and rent it out and know if you have enough money to be able to buy something there or going rent or you want to maybe move instead of selling this because it’s going to be tough to get back in and especially for those people that have owned that real estate for a while because they’re looking at losing their prop 13 You know, property taxes. So that’s a big deal for a lot of people and especially that may be retirees, etc. The type of clientele that’s going to listen to those podcasts. And they really need to think about it a little bit. But if Hey, they’re saying we’re moving and we’re not coming back, good returns, then hey, let’s go let’s I’m all in 110% Let’s get you the best possible price in terms in what you need it into fit into your schedule, Mr. Seller, Mrs. seller, and let’s get going. So the pitfalls though, would be financially that way not pre-planning. Also let me connect you with a top agent in that area to make sure that you know you’re dealing with someone that is a strategic or strategy because you know, dealing with buyers and dealing with sellers are totally different. There’s a marketing strategy and selling and listing property and there’s a different strategy when you’re negotiating on the buy-side and especially with the crazy market now. So, you know, what’s your buyer really looking for? are they dealing with a top agent that knows how to negotiate because you know, I hate guys, everybody has a real estate license, you could throw a rock and hit a real estate agent, but are they ones that are doing business and know how to negotiate other than just being able to open a lockbox open the door and write it off? Big difference? Yeah, and I would I after seeing some of your material, know how to really market it. I mean, the stuff you do is amazing with you know, the flyovers and all that that you’ve done and I mean, I think you know, you definitely just in what I’ve seen of you online and following you, you know, you could tell that you position your sellers in a phenomenal position to sell that house at top dollar very much so thank you and you know, people when I’m listing their property, you know, they think they’re just gonna hire Joe Blow to sell it. Well, there’s a little bit more of a strategy that goes behind that putting a sign up, making some calls, put on the MLS and pray that it sells. There’s more strategy that goes into that coming soon, making sure that the property looks amazing from the curb appeal to the interior to the photos to the video to the Matterport to then the drone. And then the marketing plan has to go out to the masses. Because again, guys, anybody could throw it on Zillow and I deal with for sale by owners all the time going. Let me ask if there’s a way that I can make you more money even though you’re going to pay a full commission. Would you be open to that and they just are worried about paying a commission other than going well, maybe if I’m in excel at this high price, maybe I want a professional if I’m going to go to court, do I want a lawyer to protect me? Well, if I’ve got a diagnosis do I want a second opinion? You know, if I got a medical issue, if my car if there’s something happening during a professional look at it, you’re gonna get what you pay for. And there’s a lot of people out there that do not believe in that which I’m okay with that. Hey, that’s your decision. However, I want to work with the people that really want the best possible service provided and get the best result that’s the most important to me. Yeah, and you know Carlos I think and that’s one reason why you’re on our show because your your values with all that stuff align so much and you know, Tommy and I we want to deliver massive value to our clients and we see the same thing every day right? We get the people come in whether it’s their the do your cell phone with Vanguard or they have a broker and who Oh, we’re just paying 1% Well, what are you paying 1% For just investments. You understand that we’re not only doing investments we’re doing, you know, income planning investment. Planning, tax planning, estate planning, you know, Medicare, Social Security planning, the value there is so much more because yeah, investments are great, they’re important, but they’re actually a little slice of the pie of life that goes on through retirees and we’re bringing the experts that we need that we’re not we don’t have an expertise in so we’re bringing in people like Carlos, Mauro, Mark Diorio, you know, some of the other guests that we’ve had in other areas where hey, we’re not we’re not it.
We’re not the guy with the answer. So these guys are on our team though. And it doesn’t cost you anything for us to be able to call Carlos and ask him some questions about selling your house or something of that nature or setting up an appointment to meet with Carlos or have a conversation with him on the phone. Right. That you said Carlos said something about throwing a rock I always say you can’t swing a dead cat without hitting a financial advisor around here.
So, so it’s kind of similar, but at the end of the day, you have to ask that question. You know, what’s the value I’m getting out of that? Yeah, yeah. And one or 2%? And Carlos, you you said something about you know, when you’re talking about people moving away, in your opinion, with the people that have moved at a state. Have you had any of those Mulligan’s those people that said, Man, I really made a bad decision. And now they’re coming back. Have you been seeing that? And if so, why? I have not with any of my clients, and I do not hear that much at all. And you know, I’m paying attention now why people are moving where they’re going to be moving and you got the five red states and a lot are moving to as we know Arizona, Utah, Idaho, Texas, Texas, in Florida, South Carolina and North Carolina are right in there. So those are the seven however, those are the those are the the main ones that people are moving to that I’m speaking to mostly from San Diego. However, people are moving all over the country for certain reasons. And they’ve always moved. However, we’re just paying attention more now from everything that’s kind of come out with the covers kind of being pulled with this pandemic so called that happened and all the craziness going on. We’re starting to see why you know, and you’re having a lot of people that aren’t going to put up with the bull. They want to be what they grew up with, and especially with our conservative views here in San Diego, and there’s a lot of them out here still, they just don’t they’re not as boisterous and they’re just saying, Hey, I’ve had enough I’m paying way too high taxes and paying you know, with sunshine tax, and maybe I’m gonna go to another place that has that and maybe not the best weather but my son and daughter lived there in Florida or live in Texas or Arizona, whatever the case is, and I’ll travel back, so right yeah. All right. So let’s run this last scenario. Your retiree clients, they’re gonna move to let’s say, Arizona from from California here. What are some of the things that before they make that move and you’re really trying to help them right? You’re not just trying to sell because that’s not the type of of person you are. You’re trying to help them make an educated decision. What are some of the things that you’re going to really tell them to focus on? And let’s say they have they’re going to have a capital gain on that house of $1.2 million, and they’re just going from primary residence to primary residence? Well, one of the things I would do is have you talked to your financial advisor and number two is if they could do a prop 60-90, which basically allows you in some states to move your property tax basis. Over to another area in some states will allow that prop 60-90 allows you to move your property tax basis to a property equal to or less than what you sold your primary residence for and this is only for primary residence. So Arizona would say have you been over there Have you located in agent and what part and have you spent any time there and they’ll say yes, no. In Arizona? Probably they have. I’m going to say I’m going to highly recommend you’re going to talk to my friend Jason Penrose, who’s a top agent in Arizona and if he can help you in one of the areas he’s going to know and another agent that can because I trust him, and I believe in him and he sells a lot of real estate and he’s a master negotiator. So you’re going to work with him and then you’re going to take a trip out there and you’re going to see to see what area you want to be in and making sure we can find your home within the time that we’re going to sell your home. So it’s an easy transition. That’s when I’m going to sit down and talk to them first about over a phone call probably and then find out more of their motivation and how quickly they want to make that happen. One thing that you said that stood out for me because it’s I’ve had some do overs, right and have you spent time in that area? That’s a huge question to ask because, you know, here in Jersey, we’re not we have some rural areas, but mostly it’s suburban or city like living. And so when you grew up in Jersey, and then you move down to the Outer Banks in North Carolina or Cuba Island and South Carolina or some, you know, Tampa Bay, Florida, it’s a different lifestyle. And I’ve had people come back and say hey, you know, it wasn’t what I thought it was going to be all my friends who are down there said it was going to be this or that or the other thing, and it’s not that and I can’t you know, it’s just not my lifestyle. So one of the things I always tell people is hey, you got to spend time there rent for six months. See if he liked the place before he before that because selling your house and moving your life. That’s a big decision. Yeah. Or at least get an Airbnb and spend a week there. You know before you’re going to really make that decision to and I would think that most people would however, that’s some of the stuff that I would ask them. And it’s all about motivation. Here you know, I’m a salesperson number one, number two and number three, however, you can’t make somebody do something unless they’re highly motivated. So that is really what is that and how can I help you that’s the question that we need to ask our clients and providing that top notch service is listening to them to understand what they want and how we can give them that service. So that says our profession is what we need to do and upgrade that more and it’s basically what’s important and how can we help provide that service for you? And if it’s moving, it’s a big deal and it’s usually going to be around a job or better lifestyle. Or family. Yeah, yeah, absolutely. Well, Carlos, you know, we’ve really, you know, enjoyed getting your expertise and if any one of our listeners out, Carlos, I know you’re just in San Diego, but you have a network of advisers throughout the nation, right? Yes, sir. So it doesn’t matter if you’re in San Diego, if you have questions and you know, Carlos knows people throughout this nation, Carlos, how can you help our listeners if they’re, they’re looking for a phenomenal real estate adviser? Well, friends, you know, I’m going to basically ask a couple questions of where it’s going to be what’s important to you in that area. Have you found an area and price point and then what I’m going to do is I’m coached by Mike Ferry and the Mike Ferry organization, which is probably the number one real estate coach in the world. He’s got, you know, not only here, Canada, Italy, France and Dubai now and Russia. Basically we had learned that system and we have agents all over the country. So there’s agents usually everywhere, whatever you’re gonna get from what I do here, specifically at a high level, you’re gonna get over in Ocean City, Maryland or down in New Jersey with Jeff Quinton down there and the Jersey Shore All Over You can reach me at CarlosGsellssandiego.com, That’s CarlosGsellssandiego.com and then or 858-864-8741. Reach out, could look me up anyway. I’d be happy to help in any way and you just share with what you’re looking for and we’ll match you up with whose going to benefit you.
We want everybody to win in this lifestyle and that’s what it is living in the to beautiful home wherever it’s at you wanna call it home right and Carlos one other thing where else can they find you on the Internet ’cause I you’ve got some phenomenal videos and not just real estate stuff but other videos kind of like what we’re doing we’re trying to add value in your network yeah it’s Carlos nonstop on Twitter Carlos nonstop on Instagram on Facebook Carlos Gutierrez San Diego and yeah maybe you can go to my website and you can have all my you can find all my links there as well and we’re trying to always upgrade the content not just make it always about you know business business and trying to lighten it up and have a good time as well ’cause if we’re not smile and have a good time life is that important then.
Yeah yeah absolutely yeah I mean you gotta have that joy in that Peace of Mind I know you also do a lot of stuff you know in the past you’ve done long bike rides for challenge athletes federation or foundation and you know you you’ve done a lot so you know I appreciate you taking time ’cause Carlos nonstop that’s no joke folks I mean I will text you I will be texting with Carlos like at 6:00 AM and this guy truly is nonstop total high energy and just a phenomenal business professional but also human being, so Carlos, I appreciate you coming on and sharing your expertise with us and thank you and thank you to the listeners and just reach out anything we could do to help we’re always here to help thanks Carlos it’s been pleasure speaking with you really has . Both of you guys take care
Folks that was Carlos Gutierrez and that’s gonna wrap up today’s show our next show is going to be right after tax day word have a great special guest where we’re going to be talking to those high income business owners about how you can reduce your tax bill so until next time have that Peace of Mind retire happy and we’ll talk to you soon take care of everybody.
It’s easy to get in touch with John and Thomas if you’re more on the West Coast give John a call at 858-935-6210 that’s 858-935-6210 or go online to gosecurus.com that’s go securus.com. If you’re more of an East Coaster then call Thomas 973-394-0623 that’s 973-394-and online at internationalfinancial.com that’s internationalfinancial.com and you can of course always just check the description or the show notes section of today’s show for all that contact information don’t forget to subscribe on your favorite podcasting apps and we’ll see you next time on the retire happy podcast
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